Scottish Parliament elections (Pàrlamaid na h-Alba)

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  • Scottish Parliament elections (Pàrlamaid na h-Alba)

    Wahlfieber Team, 03.10.2025 05:15
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Schottland dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2016.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    Quellen:

    • wahlfieber.com
    • wikipedia.org
    • X/Twitter: --- x.com/XPoll21 --- x.com/wahl_prognosen --- x.com/wahlfieber
    • Ergebnisse:

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Scottish Parliament election, 2016

    Wahlfieber Team, 04.10.2025 03:52, Reply to #1
    #2

    ..

    Scottish Parliament election, 2016 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Regional Vote

    ...

    SNPLabConGreenLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201144,0026,3012,404,405,200,906,80
    Prognosen 2016
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber43,1220,4417,345,636,780,006,693,952,189,937,167
    Umfragen
    TNS45,0022,0018,008,005,001,001,004,492,5312,148,599
    Panelbase44,0022,0019,006,004,003,002,003,331,907,025,166
    BMG46,0020,0016,007,006,004,001,004,112,306,7111,338
    Survation44,0019,0020,007,006,002,002,002,341,174,282,461
    Ipsos45,0017,0019,0010,007,001,001,004,962,8315,448,5910
    YouGov41,0019,0020,009,006,004,001,002,611,235,942,592
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)44,0020,0018,508,005,502,501,502,981,635,654,635
    MMI-Wahltrend43,4219,0918,977,936,262,381,962,701,375,283,563
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average43,5619,7718,397,386,101,832,972,741,505,274,304
    SNPLabConGreenLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen43,1220,4417,345,636,780,006,693,952,189,937,16
    Umfragen44,1719,8318,677,835,672,501,333,661,998,596,45
    Expertenprognosen43,7119,5418,737,965,882,441,732,841,505,464,09
    Wahltipps43,5619,7718,397,386,101,832,972,841,505,274,30
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen43,9119,8318,527,595,862,411,873,451,877,775,84
    Ergebnis 201641,7019,1022,906,605,202,002,50
    SNPLabConGreenLibDemUKIPAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    Anmerkungen:

    UKIP fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein. Für die Ermittlung der Prognosegüten wurden die Werte von UKIP und Andere zusammengefasst.

    ******************************************

    ..

    Scottish Parliament election, 2016 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Constituency Vote

    ...

    SNPLabConLibDemAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201145,4031,7013,907,901,10
    Prognosen 2016
    Umfragen
    TNS52,0022,0017,007,003,004,923,056,3914,217
    Panelbase49,0023,0017,006,004,003,692,255,538,162
    BMG53,0021,0016,006,003,005,833,556,6420,218
    Survation49,0021,0019,007,005,003,952,557,116,863
    Ipsos51,0019,0018,006,006,005,973,809,5314,719
    YouGov48,0022,0019,007,004,002,941,805,204,011
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)50,0021,5018,007,003,503,962,556,098,014
    MMI-Wahltrend49,5020,8818,506,754,634,112,686,997,596
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average49,7521,1918,256,884,064,032,616,557,695
    SNPLabConLibDemAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Umfragen50,3321,3317,676,504,174,532,836,7311,36
    Expertenprognosen49,7521,1918,256,874,064,042,616,547,80
    Wahltipps49,7521,1918,256,874,064,032,616,557,69
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen50,1421,2817,866,624,134,372,766,6710,16
    Ergebnis 201646,5022,6022,007,801,10
    SNPLabConLibDemAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Scottish Parliament election, 2021

    Wahlfieber Team, 04.10.2025 04:09, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Scottish Parliament election, 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Regional Vote

    ...

    SNPConLabGreenLibDemAlbaAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201641,7022,9019,106,605,200,004,50
    Prognosen 2021
    Wahlbörsen
    Wahlfieber38,8622,0418,4110,524,673,222,283,121,2710,632,018
    Umfragen
    Find it out42,0021,0016,0011,005,000,005,002,731,535,083,533
    Panelbase39,0022,0016,008,007,004,004,003,201,3710,762,408
    Lord Ashcroft42,0022,0016,009,007,002,002,003,031,379,422,176
    BMG37,0022,0017,009,008,004,003,003,641,7412,024,099
    Opinium41,0023,0017,008,006,003,002,002,770,839,550,865
    Savanta34,0023,0019,009,006,002,007,003,881,949,807,9712
    Survation36,0021,0019,0010,007,003,004,003,711,9410,895,0311
    Ipsos39,0023,0018,0012,004,002,002,003,111,239,792,927
    YouGov38,0022,0016,0013,005,003,003,003,571,779,995,2910
    SNPConLabGreenLibDemAlbaAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)40,0022,0017,009,006,002,503,502,220,775,730,771
    MMI-Wahltrend38,3722,0117,6810,905,332,742,962,761,177,692,174
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber-User39,1922,0017,349,955,672,623,23X2,330,956,531,20--
    Wahlfieber Average39,1022,0117,6110,095,422,772,992,530,977,131,302
    SNPConLabGreenLibDemAlbaAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Wahlbörsen38,8622,0418,4110,524,673,222,283,121,2710,632,01
    Umfragen38,6722,1117,119,896,112,873,243,291,539,703,81
    Expertenprognosen39,1922,0017,349,955,672,623,232,500,976,711,47
    Wahltipps39,1022,0117,6110,095,422,772,992,530,977,131,30
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen38,8022,0817,289,965,882,853,143,101,389,113,12
    Ergebnis 202140,3023,5017,908,105,101,703,40
    SNPConLabGreenLibDemAlbaAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang

    ******************************************

    ..

    Scottish Parliament election, 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte --- Constituency Vote

    ...

    SNPConLabLibDemGreenAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201646,5022,0022,607,800,600,50
    Prognosen 2021
    Umfragen
    Find it out50,0021,0017,005,004,003,005,412,9617,9311,3812
    Panelbase48,0021,0020,007,003,001,002,761,008,511,586
    Lord Ashcroft49,0022,0015,008,005,001,005,112,6415,7812,6611
    BMG49,0019,0021,009,000,002,002,611,405,122,985
    Opinium51,0023,0019,007,000,000,004,571,8022,584,5010
    Savanta42,0025,0022,008,000,003,004,072,288,748,949
    Survation49,0021,0021,008,001,001,001,740,802,960,821
    Ipsos50,0020,0022,006,002,001,002,781,327,452,227
    YouGov52,0020,0019,006,002,001,003,772,168,946,188
    SNPConLabLibDemGreenAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen
    Wahlfieber Team (MMI)49,0021,5019,507,002,001,002,321,006,111,502
    MMI-Wahltrend50,0020,6320,386,751,751,002,431,165,531,834
    Wahltipps
    Wahlfieber Average49,5021,0619,946,881,881,002,381,065,681,533
    SNPConLabLibDemGreenAndereNoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte
    Umfragen48,8921,3319,567,112,430,903,711,8210,895,69
    Expertenprognosen49,4421,0019,886,881,871,252,431,085,821,66
    Wahltipps49,5021,0619,946,881,871,002,381,065,681,53
    Gesamtdurchschnitt
    Summen49,0321,2619,647,052,261,003,411,639,614,67

    Anmerkungen:

    Green fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein. Für die Ermittlung der Prognosegüten wurden die Werte von Green und Andere zusammengefasst.

    Link prediction
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