Bulgarian parliamentary elections

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  • Bulgarian parliamentary elections

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 19:49
    #1

    In diesem Thread sind die Auswertungen der letzten Parlamentswahlen in Bulgarien dokumentiert - beginnend mit der Wahl im Jahre 2016.

    Die Auswertungskriterien können en detail an folgender Stelle ein- und nachgelesen werden:

    Wie wir die Prognosegüte ermitteln - http://www.wahlfieber.de/de_du/forum/WaFi-Team/7585/

    *******

    Legende (für den Schnelleinstieg):

    • MAF: mittlerer absoluter Fehler --- oft auch MAE - Mean absolute error
    • MAPF: mittlerer absoluter prozentualer Fehler - oft auch MAPE- Mean absolute percentage error
    • sMAPE: symmetrischer MAPF
    • MQF: mittlerer quadratischer Fehler--- oft auch MSE- Mean squared error
    • NOTE: aus den zuvor angeführten Fehlern ermittelte Gesamtgüte einer Prognose (angelehnt an gängige Schulnoten)
    • R: Abkürzung für "Rang" (innerhalb der in der jeweiligen Tabelle aufgeführten Prognosen)
    • X: diese Prognose fließt nicht in die Auswertung ein

    Anmerkungen:

    Quellen:

    • wahlfieber.com
    • wikipedia.org
    • politpro.eu
    • politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls
    • X/Twitter: --- x.com/GlobeElections --- x.com/XPoll21 --- x.com/wahl_prognosen --- @wahlfieber
    • Ergebnisse:

    *******

    Dieser Thread wird nach jeder Parlamentswahl um eine aktuelle Auswertung ergänzt.

    *******

    *******

    Die nachfolgenden Auflistungen erheben keinen Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, obgleich wir bemüht sind, möglichst alle Prognosen zu erfassen.

    Fehlermeldungen, Anmerkungen oder Ergänzungen bitte ggf. per Mail an den Support oder an geeigneter Stelle im Forum.

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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, 2013

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 20:30, Reply to #1
    #2

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien 2013 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBBSPDSPAtakaAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 200939,7017,7014,009,4019,20

















    Prognosen 2013






















    Wahlbörsen











    Wahlfieber
    		29,3228,1311,7110,7320,11
    		3,602,146,976,526












    Umfragen










    Alpha Research33,0028,0010,007,5021,50
    		2,611,613,973,412
    Mediana32,0031,5011,608,0016,90
    		4,962,936,8716,019
    NCIOM34,0025,0013,009,0019,00
    		4,372,747,599,508
    Skala26,8026,4011,509,2026,10
    		2,791,594,614,264
    Gallup32,0030,0011,008,0019,00
    		3,652,215,278,277












    Expertenprognosen










    Wahlfieber Team31,5028,0011,508,0021,00
    		2,281,293,322,741
    MMI-Wahltrend31,4628,5311,058,5620,40
    		2,791,634,514,144












    Wahltipps










    Wahlfieber Average30,9428,2311,388,8920,55
    		2,641,474,383,753













    		GERBBSPDSPAtakaAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte










    Wahlbörsen29,3228,1311,7110,7320,11
    		3,602,146,976,52
    Umfragen31,5628,1811,428,3420,50
    		3,702,225,668,29
    Expertenprognosen31,4828,2711,288,2820,70
    		2,541,463,923,44
    Wahltipps30,9428,2311,388,8920,55
    		2,641,474,383,75












    Gesamtdurchschnitt










    Summen31,2228,2011,428,6520,51
    		3,321,965,286,51
























    Ergebnis 201330,5526,6211,317,3024,22






    		GERBBSPDSPAtakaAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang












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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, 2014

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 20:44, Reply to #2
    #3

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien 2014 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBBSPDPSAtakaRPBBTPFABVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201325,8017,4014,8010,409,304,605,902,409,40





















    Prognosen 2014






























    Umfragen














    Alpha Research34,1019,1015,403,906,006,004,203,807,50
    		3,151,549,123,936
    Exacta37,0019,5015,003,307,007,004,504,002,70
    		4,182,2013,727,2212
    Mediana31,0021,0013,204,506,807,507,103,705,20
    		3,181,657,745,178
    CAM35,5021,0014,004,507,205,105,402,904,40
    		3,591,8710,105,8910
    IMP35,0021,2012,705,005,605,805,005,404,30
    		4,072,2212,037,4011
    ISIM-MBMD36,1018,6016,304,606,604,804,802,805,40
    		3,441,8210,324,399
    Gallup33,9018,9015,104,005,705,904,403,808,30
    		3,171,549,273,977
    Affis33,5020,7013,704,407,205,105,402,907,10
    		3,071,488,204,305
    Harris Owl37,2025,0012,703,505,605,904,803,401,90
    		5,863,1917,8717,5113
















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen














    Politico34,0020,0013,004,009,006,007,004,003,00
    		3,031,418,004,394
















    Expertenprognosen














    Wahlfieber Team34,0020,0014,004,006,506,005,004,506,00
    		2,971,467,703,933
    MMI-Wahltrend34,0019,5014,383,986,805,985,154,036,20
    		2,671,276,563,141
















    Wahltipps














    Wahlfieber Average34,0019,7514,193,996,655,995,084,266,10
    		2,791,356,963,512

















    		GERBBSPDPSAtakaRPBBTPFABVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte














    Umfragen34,8120,5614,234,196,415,905,073,635,20
    		3,761,9410,936,64
    Sonstige Prognosen34,0020,0013,004,009,006,007,004,003,00
    		3,031,418,004,39
    Expertenprognosen34,0019,7514,193,996,655,995,084,266,10
    		2,821,377,133,53
    Wahltipps34,0019,7514,193,996,655,995,084,266,10
    		2,791,356,963,51
















    Gesamtdurchschnitt














    Summen34,5620,3314,134,136,675,935,223,815,24
    		3,501,779,815,75
































    Ergebnis 201432,6715,4014,844,528,895,697,284,156,56






    		GERBBSPDPSAtakaRPBBTPFABVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
















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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, 2017

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 20:52, Reply to #3
    #4

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien 2017 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBBSPzBDPSOPRBVolyaABVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201432,7015,4014,8011,808,900,004,2012,20




















    Prognosen 2017




























    Wahlbörsen













    Wahlfieber31,5129,867,0211,505,204,250,0010,66
    		3,742,1010,605,819















    Umfragen













    Alpha Research31,7029,108,408,904,006,802,908,20
    		3,681,7112,625,138
    Exacta31,2028,107,6010,504,006,502,609,50
    		3,471,6712,143,655
    Trend29,8027,908,7010,203,807,302,609,70
    		3,501,7011,594,356
    Sova Haris31,3031,606,4010,306,307,203,003,90
    		6,273,3522,6117,5614
    Mediana26,6027,7011,1010,205,109,604,005,70
    		6,313,4222,0517,6015
    CAM29,6029,0010,8010,003,506,201,509,40
    		3,241,768,454,583
    Modern Politics29,1029,007,309,503,505,804,1011,70
    		3,511,7212,083,887
    Estat29,7027,208,308,606,1010,502,607,00
    		5,132,6118,0512,5312
    Gallup27,1026,509,7012,303,808,202,609,80
    		4,522,4514,219,1011
    AFIS31,2031,508,509,904,405,304,105,10
    		5,022,5517,0912,3912















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen













    Politico30,0029,008,0010,004,007,003,009,00
    		3,902,0013,545,2610















    Expertenprognosen













    Wahlfieber Team30,0028,008,509,504,007,002,5010,50
    		3,221,5010,633,262
    MMI-Wahltrend30,0628,498,3210,444,206,652,209,63
    		3,451,7411,214,054















    Wahltipps













    Wahlfieber Average30,4028,658,0610,354,386,181,7610,21
    		3,111,589,413,171
















    		GERBBSPzBDPSOPRBVolyaABVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte













    Wahlbörsen31,5129,867,0211,505,204,250,0010,66
    		3,742,1010,605,81
    Umfragen29,7328,768,6810,044,457,343,008,00
    		4,492,2915,099,08
    Sonstige Prognosen30,0029,008,0010,004,007,003,009,00
    		3,902,0013,545,26
    Expertenprognosen30,0328,258,419,974,106,832,3510,07
    		3,341,6210,923,66
    Wahltipps30,4028,658,0610,354,386,181,7610,21
    		3,111,589,413,17















    Gesamtdurchschnitt













    Summen29,9528,778,4510,154,426,972,828,48
    		4,162,1213,757,49






























    Ergebnis 201732,6527,198,999,073,064,151,5513,34






    		GERBBSPzBDPSOPRBVolyaABVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang















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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, April 2021

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 21:03, Reply to #4
    #5

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien April 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBBSPzBDPSOPDBITNISMVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 201732,7027,209,009,105,400,000,0016,60




















    Prognosen 2021




























    Umfragen













    Alpha Research28,5023,2012,503,705,7013,304,508,60
    		5,723,3412,6617,8410
    Exacta28,8025,608,405,406,0014,003,708,10
    		6,863,9116,7124,0513
    Trend28,9024,1011,103,806,2012,904,009,00
    		5,793,3412,5519,1511
    Market Links24,6018,908,502,707,6013,003,9020,80
    		4,662,7011,3911,294
    Sova Haris26,6025,108,705,508,4011,405,708,60
    		6,283,5214,6822,6912
    Mediana27,5024,2010,704,005,2015,205,008,20
    		5,493,0512,4418,559
    CAM28,6019,5013,204,306,1012,504,5011,30
    		4,612,7711,2310,106
    Barometer33,5020,8013,2012,705,206,202,505,90
    		11,916,4230,5950,0814
    Gallup25,8021,9012,404,206,8013,104,7011,10
    		4,342,459,7911,113















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen













    PolitPro27,8023,1011,303,805,5013,204,9010,40
    		5,082,9311,2514,998
    Politico28,0022,0011,004,008,0014,005,008,00
    		4,732,7010,2113,507















    Expertenprognosen













    Wahlfieber Team27,0022,0010,504,006,5013,004,5012,50
    		4,042,248,4810,431
    MMI-Wahltrend27,3322,2811,603,986,7513,354,6810,05
    		4,612,679,9912,424















    Wahltipps













    Wahlfieber Average27,1622,1411,053,996,6313,184,5911,28
    		4,302,459,1811,192
















    		GERBBSPzBDPSOPDBITNISMVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte













    Umfragen28,0922,5910,975,146,3612,404,2810,18
    		6,143,5014,6720,54
    Sonstige Prognosen27,9022,5511,153,906,7513,604,959,20
    		4,912,8210,7314,24
    Expertenprognosen27,1622,1411,053,996,6313,184,5911,28
    		4,322,459,2411,43
    Wahltipps27,1622,1411,053,996,6313,184,5911,28
    		4,302,459,1811,19















    Gesamtdurchschnitt













    Summen27,8622,4911,014,726,4712,744,4410,27
    		5,583,1812,9417,67






























    Ergebnis April 202125,8014,7910,363,599,3117,404,6514,10






    		GERBBSPzBDPSOPDBITNISMVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang















    Link prediction
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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, July 2021

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 21:12, Reply to #5
    #6

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien Juli 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBITNBSPzBDPSDBISMVBPVAZAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis April 202125,8017,4014,8010,409,304,605,902,409,40





















    Prognosen Juli 2024














































    Umfragen














    Alpha Research21,5021,8016,4011,1012,005,403,803,204,80
    		2,371,135,572,144
    Exacta21,4020,8015,8011,2012,804,804,002,806,40
    		2,341,135,182,313
    Trend20,5021,3015,9011,3012,405,103,903,106,50
    		2,381,185,142,525
    Market Links21,8020,8018,7010,5013,806,003,202,702,50
    		3,531,789,836,058
    Sova Haris22,6022,1016,0010,9010,605,304,500,008,00
    		2,511,236,342,187
    Mediana22,5021,7020,6011,1010,005,104,802,202,00
    		4,372,1814,279,2715
    CAM23,8020,9018,0010,5011,404,403,701,905,40
    		2,901,337,513,8810
    Barometer22,5018,2017,1011,609,104,306,401,409,40
    		4,872,6416,689,6816
    Gallup20,3021,3015,9011,5012,206,104,003,105,60
    		2,551,295,882,799
    Nasoca21,4020,5015,8010,5011,305,304,402,308,50
    		3,111,588,913,6112
    Specter21,4019,7014,5010,5012,205,005,202,409,10
    		3,161,538,924,2413
















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen














    PolitPro21,5021,1017,4011,0010,505,601,800,0011,10
    		3,511,939,934,9914
    Politico22,0022,0017,0011,0012,006,004,002,004,00
    		2,991,389,262,8311
















    Expertenprognosen














    Wahlfieber Team21,5022,0016,0011,0012,005,004,002,506,00
    		2,221,005,171,731
    MMI-Wahltrend21,3321,7816,3311,1512,055,633,952,705,10
    		2,441,175,932,186
















    Wahltipps














    Wahlfieber Average21,4121,8916,1611,0812,035,313,982,605,55
    		2,271,055,251,912

















    		GERBITNBSPzBDPSDBISMVBPVAZAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte














    Umfragen21,7920,8316,7910,9711,625,164,352,515,97
    		3,141,558,564,42
    Sonstige Prognosen21,7521,5517,2011,0011,255,802,902,006,55
    		3,241,659,593,91
    Expertenprognosen21,4121,8916,1611,0812,035,313,982,605,55
    		2,331,085,551,95
    Wahltipps21,4121,8916,1611,0812,035,313,982,605,55
    		2,271,055,251,91
















    Gesamtdurchschnitt














    Summen21,7121,1216,7211,0011,655,274,102,495,94
    		3,011,478,113,89
































    Exit Polls














    Gallup22,1021,5015,1011,8013,704,903,303,204,40
    		2,161,044,821,64
    Alpha Research23,5022,3014,1011,7014,105,503,202,303,30
    		2,491,027,261,50
































    Ergebnis Juli 202123,2023,8013,2010,6012,504,903,103,005,70






    		GERBITNBSPzBDPSDBISMVBPVAZAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
















    Link prediction
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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, November 2021

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 21:19, Reply to #6
    #7

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien November 2021 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		ITNGERBBSPzBDBDPSIBG-NIVAZPPAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis Juli 202123,8023,2013,2012,5010,605,003,000,008,70





















    Prognosen November 2021














































    Umfragen














    Alpha Research9,9024,1016,0010,209,803,603,8016,506,10
    		5,433,0014,1816,514
    Exacta12,5023,8015,009,209,503,503,0015,508,00
    		6,183,4717,5918,868
    Trend12,8022,9015,109,1010,303,303,6014,808,10
    		6,003,3116,0619,877
    Market Links9,7023,0012,1010,5011,204,103,0016,3010,10
    		5,452,9116,4015,785
    Sova Haris13,4023,8016,709,109,704,102,5015,605,10
    		7,094,0019,5023,9911
    Mediana12,2025,4015,609,7010,604,203,1017,301,90
    		6,323,5620,9016,609
    Barometer13,4026,4015,808,1011,402,901,5011,209,30
    		8,014,3321,7533,7614
    Estat15,2024,1018,107,409,203,303,3014,305,10
    		6,863,7816,2427,3210
    Gallup11,4023,5015,209,6011,303,403,5015,506,60
    		5,422,9614,3516,813
















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen














    PolitPro13,7023,0015,8010,6010,204,002,8012,807,10
    		7,253,9619,9327,9512
    Politico16,0023,0016,009,0010,003,003,0012,008,00
    		7,604,1319,1232,3113

















    		ITNGERBBSPzBDBDPSIBG-NIVAZPPAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen














    Wahlfieber Team12,0024,0015,009,0010,004,003,0018,005,00
    		5,122,8714,9912,511
    MMI-Wahltrend12,3323,6515,559,4510,283,503,3315,506,43
    		5,803,2215,6618,166
















    Wahltipps














    Wahlfieber Average12,1623,8315,289,2310,143,753,1616,755,71
    		5,403,0115,0515,082

















    		ITNGERBBSPzBDBDPSIBG-NIVAZPPAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte














    Umfragen12,2824,1115,519,2110,333,603,0317,124,80
    		6,303,4817,4421,06
    Sonstige Prognosen14,8523,0015,909,8010,103,502,9024,80-4,85
    		7,434,0419,5330,13
    Expertenprognosen12,1623,8315,289,2310,143,753,1616,755,71
    		5,463,0415,3315,34
    Wahltipps12,1623,8315,289,2310,143,753,1616,755,71
    		5,403,0115,0515,08
















    Gesamtdurchschnitt














    Summen12,6223,8915,529,3010,263,623,0417,674,09
    		6,283,4617,2721,11
































    Exit Polls














    Gallup9,3023,1010,406,4011,403,005,0026,305,10
    		1,510,442,970,41
    Alpha Research9,6023,2010,906,5010,702,604,8026,305,40
    		1,540,532,740,72
































    Ergebnis November 20219,5022,7010,206,4013,002,304,9025,705,30






    		ITNGERBBSPzBDBDPSIBG-NIVAZPPAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
















    Link prediction
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  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, 2022

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 21:26, Reply to #7
    #8

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien 2022 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		PP-DBGERBDPSBSPzBITNVAZBVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis Nov. 202132,1022,7013,0010,209,504,900,007,60




















    Prognosen 2022











































    Umfragen













    Alpha Research24,9025,2013,1010,204,0011,004,407,20
    		1,860,853,831,071
    Exacta24,8026,4012,6010,804,5010,504,206,20
    		2,541,306,402,218
    Trend24,0025,7011,908,704,2013,904,407,20
    		2,721,455,933,6810
    Market Links24,7023,7012,309,903,908,702,5014,30
    		3,441,729,555,6213
    Sova Haris24,7027,5012,5012,104,609,504,204,90
    		3,291,768,774,7112
    Mediana22,2026,3011,5013,104,7012,005,205,00
    		4,242,4611,757,8115
    SINPI24,4024,5013,809,704,6012,104,106,80
    		2,371,105,871,906
    Center for Analysis and Marketing24,3024,8012,8011,203,8010,503,309,30
    		2,231,025,271,695
    Estat23,7026,1010,309,304,2010,104,8011,50
    		2,781,506,193,7511
    Gallup24,4025,8013,209,204,2012,804,006,40
    		2,531,255,982,627















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen













    PolitPro25,4024,3010,9011,605,005,704,0013,10
    		3,942,1211,706,7714
    Politico25,0026,0011,0011,004,0011,005,007,00
    		2,581,386,342,339















    Expertenprognosen













    Wahlfieber Team
    		24,0025,5012,5010,504,0011,004,008,50
    		2,051,004,171,622
    MMI-Wahltrend24,5825,6312,4510,234,0511,454,357,28
    		2,141,094,691,564















    Wahltipps













    Wahlfieber Average24,2925,5612,4810,364,0311,234,187,89
    		2,081,044,411,523
















    		PP-DBGERBDPSBSPzBITNVAZBVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte













    Umfragen24,2125,6012,4010,424,2711,114,117,88
    		2,821,446,953,51
    Sonstige Prognosen25,2025,1510,9511,304,508,354,5010,05
    		3,291,759,024,55
    Expertenprognosen24,2925,5612,4810,364,0311,234,177,89
    		2,101,044,431,59
    Wahltipps24,2925,5612,4810,364,0311,234,177,89
    		2,081,044,411,52















    Gesamtdurchschnitt













    Summen24,3625,5312,2210,534,2510,774,178,17
    		2,751,406,723,26






























    Exit Polls













    Gallup25,2024,7014,5010,804,6010,204,006,00
    		2,461,136,551,83






























    Ergebnis 202226,7124,4813,298,983,719,834,478,53






    		PP-DBGERBDPSBSPzBITNVAZBVAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang















    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, 2023

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 21:32, Reply to #8
    #9

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien 2023 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBPP-DBDPSVAZBSPzBBVITNAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 202224,4826,7113,299,838,984,473,718,53




















    Prognosen 2023




























    Umfragen













    Alpha Research25,9025,4013,8013,608,203,902,306,90
    		2,551,007,821,4711
    Exacta26,2025,6013,7012,807,403,302,908,10
    		2,160,945,481,129
    Trend26,4026,1013,7013,307,303,503,006,70
    		2,521,176,831,9210
    Market Links25,8027,5015,8013,208,502,402,704,10
    		3,581,7510,635,9114
    Sova Haris25,9024,6012,8012,607,803,902,909,50
    		2,120,805,800,707
    Mediana24,7023,1013,2014,508,604,503,408,00
    		1,960,644,980,633
    CAM24,7025,7013,8012,508,102,802,909,50
    		1,990,864,541,064
    Nasoca24,8024,1013,2012,206,804,303,0011,60
    		2,711,188,192,0113
    Gallup26,5026,9013,3013,007,203,503,006,60
    		2,691,297,182,6312















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen













    PolitPro25,6025,8013,2012,308,103,603,108,30
    		2,020,794,821,065
    Politico26,0025,0013,0013,008,003,003,009,00
    		1,610,573,300,521
















    		GERBPP-DBDPSVAZBSPzBBVITNAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Expertenprognosen













    Wahlfieber Team26,0025,5013,5013,508,003,003,007,50
    		1,880,744,180,932
    MMI-Wahltrend26,1025,7013,4013,287,853,352,837,50
    		2,150,885,481,148















    Wahltipps













    Wahlfieber Average26,0525,6013,4513,397,933,182,917,50
    		2,020,814,841,025
















    		GERBPP-DBDPSVAZBSPzBBVITNAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte













    Umfragen25,6625,4413,7013,087,773,572,907,89
    		2,501,076,831,94
    Sonstige Prognosen25,8025,4013,1012,658,053,303,058,65
    		1,830,684,060,79
    Expertenprognosen26,0525,6013,4513,397,933,182,917,50
    		2,020,814,831,03
    Wahltipps26,0525,6013,4513,397,933,182,917,50
    		2,020,814,841,02















    Gesamtdurchschnitt













    Summen25,7625,4713,5613,087,843,442,927,91
    		2,310,966,001,58






























    Ergebnis 202325,3923,5413,1813,588,562,933,978,85






    		GERBPP-DBDPSVAZBSPzBBVITNAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang















    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • Bulgarian parliamentary election, June 2024

    Wahlfieber Team, 22.02.2026 21:39, Reply to #9
    #10

    ..

    Parlamentswahl Bulgarien Juni 2024 - Ermittlung der Prognosegüte

    ...


    		GERBPP-DBVAZDPSBSPzBITNVelAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Ergebnis 202326,5024,6014,2013,808,904,100,007,90




















    Prognosen 2024




























    Umfragen













    Alpha Research25,1015,4015,2014,808,106,200,0015,20
    		2,961,736,214,316
    Exacta26,4015,5014,8014,609,006,200,0013,50
    		3,822,288,107,8712
    Trend26,5015,3015,1014,908,505,900,0013,80
    		3,542,117,127,047
    Market Links27,5017,1012,4013,708,404,500,0016,40
    		3,812,358,816,4711
    Sova Haris25,5015,1015,3014,208,405,100,0016,40
    		2,951,766,663,645
    Mediana28,6012,9014,9013,508,405,100,0016,60
    		3,592,197,536,479
    CAM26,4016,6014,5015,008,405,300,0013,80
    		3,712,227,757,4210
    Gallup25,9015,7015,5015,308,006,101,7011,80
    		3,542,087,107,217















    Sonstige Umfr.-Prognosen













    PolitPro27,3016,6014,8014,409,105,000,0012,80
    		4,562,769,9210,7913
    Politico26,0015,0014,0014,008,005,000,0018,00
    		2,451,395,362,341















    Expertenprognosen













    Wahlfieber Team26,0015,0014,5014,508,506,002,0013,50
    		2,931,736,064,224
    MMI-Wahltrend25,7515,2814,8014,658,155,830,9314,63
    		2,831,685,664,002















    Wahltipps













    Wahlfieber Average25,8815,1414,6514,588,335,911,4614,06
    		2,881,715,864,093
















    		GERBPP-DBVAZDPSBSPzBITNVelAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang
    Durchschnittswerte













    Umfragen26,4915,4514,7114,508,405,551,7013,20
    		3,492,097,416,30
    Sonstige Prognosen26,6515,8014,4014,208,555,000,0015,40
    		3,532,077,646,56
    Expertenprognosen25,8815,1414,6514,588,335,911,4614,06
    		2,881,715,864,11
    Wahltipps25,8815,1414,6514,588,335,911,4614,06
    		2,881,715,864,09















    Gesamtdurchschnitt













    Summen26,3715,4314,6514,478,415,551,0114,11
    		3,362,007,095,84






























    Ergebnis Juni 202423,9913,9213,3816,566,855,794,5214,99






    		GERBPP-DBVAZDPSBSPzBITNVelAndere
    		NoteMAEsMAPEMSERang















    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.
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Fine music for political ears

What we predict...

Wahlfieber, originally a platform from the German-speaking world, offers (user-based) forecasts on elections worldwide - using political prediction markets without applying any algorythm.

Our focus

Germany / Austria / Switzerland
All national and state elections as well as selected local, mayoral and party elections

Europe
Almost all national elections as well as selected presidential, regional and local elections and votes.

USA
All presidential, senatorial and house elections (including mid-term and most presidential primaries/caucusses) as well as important special and state elections.

UK
All national and state elections as well as important special, local and mayoral elections and votes.

Worldwide
National elections - including Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, etc.


Important elections in 2025

  • Several state elections in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein
  • Presidential elections in Romania, Poland, Ireland, Portugal
  • National elections in Germany, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Norway - Argentina, Australia, Canada

How does this work?

This is how you contribute to the prediction - See the Infocenter

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