Präsidentschaftswahl 2020: Herbst der Stagflation

posts 271 - 280 by 282
  • Who I'm voting for... Trump vs Biden 2020 (as an ex-Google tech lead)

    Mirascael, 01.11.2020 16:50, Reply to #270

    Plausible Gründe eines neutralen Wählers diesmal erstmals keinen Demokraten sondern stattdessen Trump zu wählen:

    Who I'm voting for... Trump vs Biden 2020 (as an ex-Google tech lead)

    Enthält auch eine gute Erklärung dafür, warum Big Tech sich so stark für die Demokraten einsetzt.

  • Obama bleibt locker

    drui (MdPB), 01.11.2020 18:09, Reply to #270
  • RE: Halloweengrusel in Iowa

    saladin, 01.11.2020 18:35, Reply to #267

    hier eine karte wenn biden um rustbelt und im süden untergeht aber texas schafft

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/pA87l

    und hier eine mappe was alles passieren könnte - und trotzde, gewinnt biden

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/EnVwm

    mit anderen worten ; es kann fast alles gegen biden laufen und er gewinnt trotzdem

    nur ein perfekter abend reicht für trump

  • Ausgespielt

    Wanli, 01.11.2020 21:16, Reply to #273

    Im Zockerparadies Nevada sieht der prominenteste politische Journalist des Staates kaum noch einen Weg für Trump, hier zu gewinnen angesichts der bereits abgegebenen Stimmen.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

    Wäre normalerweise immer vorsichtig bei Versuchen, aus Brief- und Frühwahlstimmen allzu viel herauszulesen, aber Ralston begründet das recht überzeugend und ist halt auch ein unbestrittener Experte. Hab mal bei einem Markt gegen seine Prognose gewettet und bin damals übel reingefallen...

  • RE: Halloweengrusel in Iowa

    sorros, 01.11.2020 21:52, Reply to #273

    Eine ziemlich beruhigende Einordnung der Umfrage für Iowa durch die Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/01/where-race-stands-2-days-befo re-election-day/?

  • RE: Halloweengrusel in Iowa

    drui (MdPB), 01.11.2020 22:49, Reply to #275

    Eine ziemlich beruhigende Einordnung der Umfrage für Iowa durch die Washington Post:

    Kannst Du kurz beschreiben, was da geschrieben wird? Sind ja stets hinter der Bezahlschranke...

    @ saladin: Wobei Biden, wenn er Texas gewinnt, ziemlich sicher auch Arizona gewinnen würde. Weniger zwingend North Carolina.

    Aber es stimmt schon, ein demokratisches Texas wäre der absolute Alptraum für die GOP, daher läuft da auch Wählerunterdrückung und Wählereinschüchterung auf Hochtouren. Bewaffnette Trump-Milizen auf Pick-Ups verhindern Wahlkampfauftritte der Demokraten und fahren in rein-schwarze Wohngebiete zum Wähler einschüchtern. Teilweise in Begleitung der örtlichen (weißen) Polizei. Schon krass, was da abläuft.

    Von daher muss man für den Wahltag bzw. für danach schon Schlimmes befürchten. Die Polizei scheint sich jedenfalls vornehm zurückzuhalten, wenn Kriminelle die richtige Hautfarbe haben.

  • RE: Halloweengrusel in Iowa

    Wanli, 01.11.2020 22:54, Reply to #276

    Immerhin hat der oberste Gerichtshof von Texas eine Klage der GOP abgewiesen, die dazu geführt hätte, dass 127000 Stimmzettel in den Schredder gewandert wären. Morgen wird der Fall nochmals einem anderen Gericht vorgelegt.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/01/texas-drive-thru-votes-harris-county/

  • RE: Halloweengrusel in Iowa

    sorros, 01.11.2020 23:11, Reply to #276

    Eine ziemlich beruhigende Einordnung der Umfrage für Iowa durch die Washington Post:

    Kannst Du kurz beschreiben, was da geschrieben wird? Sind ja stets hinter der Bezahlschranke...

    A bunch of polls just landed with two days to go until Election Day.

    Below is our daily update of what we’ve learned from the polls and early-vote data.

    Follow the latest on Election 2020

    What all the new polls mean (In short: The race is as it ever was)

    If it’s the Sunday before Election Day, it’s an onslaught of new polls. And the ones that just came out provide a true choose-your-own-adventure.

    But the overall thrust of them is pretty unmistakable.

    On Saturday night, supporters of President Trump were suddenly heartened and some supporters of Democratic nominee Joe Biden were suddenly panicked over the latest poll from Iowa’s most authoritative pollster, Ann Selzer. The poll for the Des Moines Register shows Trump leading the state by seven points — his best poll in the state since March and significantly better for him than any recent high-quality Iowa poll, most of which show Biden leading.

    here suddenly a sizable shift toward Trump in the closing days of the election, a la 2016?

    Well, just about all the other new polls suggest not — and even that Biden may have expanded his leads.

    President Trump claimed he was “way ahead” in polling in Florida, Iowa and Ohio while speaking at a rally in Montoursville, Pa., on Oct. 31. (The Washington Post)

    In neighboring Wisconsin, for instance, a CNN poll shows Biden ahead by eight [cnn.com] (52 to 44) and a New York Times-Siena College poll shows him up by 11 points [cnn.com] (52 to 41). Both margins are larger than his previous average lead.

    The story is similar in Michigan, where CNN now has Biden up 12 [cnn.com] (53 to 41) and EPIC-MRA has Biden up seven (46 to 39).

    And then there are the other two decisive states that Trump won narrowly in 2016. In Pennsylvania, the Times-Siena poll has Biden up six (49 to 43), while a Washington Post-ABC News poll has him up seven (51 to 44). And in Florida, a Times-Siena poll has Biden up three (47 to 44) and the Post-ABC poll has Trump plus two (50 to 48).

    That’s a lot of new polling, but the takeaway from virtually all of it is the same: In the states that decided the 2016 election, where Trump won by about one point or less, the picture is about as friendly to Biden as it has been for many weeks. He is still favored to win the Midwest/Rust Belt trio of Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin, and Florida — the one key state that hasn’t shifted this year as much as the others and has long remained close — remains close. Florida is key, but if Biden sweeps that trio, it’s game over in all likelihood.

    What’s more, in another key state that Trump carried last time, Arizona, Biden leads by four in a CNN poll [cnn.com] and by six in a Times-Siena poll. This is a state that Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016. So another significant shift toward Biden, relative to 2016.

    What will decide the election? | The 2020 Fix



    The Fix breaks down the dynamics that will shape the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and who is favored headed into Election Day. (Blair Guild, JM Rieger/The Washington Post)

    It’s also important to put that Iowa poll in the same context. Iowa is not likely to be the decisive state — because of its six electoral votes, yes, but also because this is a state, judging by 2016, that should be firmly in Trump’s column if he’s to win. He won the state back then by more than nine points, after all.

    So even if he is up by seven, that suggests he has actually lost a little bit of ground from 2016, which he can’t really afford to do given how tight that race was. And even if you’re cherry-picking that poll and ignoring all the many others, you’re not necessarily cherry-picking a poll that shows Trump winning reelection.

    Biden’s suburban edge very much intact

    If there’s one thing we could be talking about most of all once the final results are in, it might be the suburbs. And new polls bear that out.

    The Times-Siena poll in Arizona, for instance, shows Biden actually winning the all-important Phoenix-based Maricopa County by six points. That’s not only a reversal from 2016, when Trump carried the area by five points, but it would also be the first time since 1948 that a Democrat had won the county. (Maricopa County is home to about 6 in 10 Arizona voters.)

    So, too, go the Philadelphia suburbs. There, Biden leads 66 to 29 in the Post-ABC poll and 57 to 34 in the Times-Siena poll. That compares favorably with just a 13-point edge for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    A Fox News poll released this weekend echoed the above on the national level, with Biden leading Trump by seven points in the suburbs, after Trump carried them by four points in 2016 — an 11-point swing. And this isn’t some small demographic; it was nearly half of all votes (49 percent) in the country in 2016 — significantly larger than both urban (34 percent) and rural areas (17 percent).

    Trump has attempted some, well, novel appeals to suburban voters. He has warned of impending doom for them stemming from racial unrest and low-income housing, and he has (apparently jokingly) pleaded with suburban women to like him, as polls have shown increasingly that they don’t. These will be some of the most closely watched demographics after Election Day, as the two parties seek to glean lessons about how our politics might have realigned in the Trump era.

    The new voters tilt Biden

    Given the unprecedented turnout we’ve seen in early voting, the question is who is expanding the electorate. And these new polls are the latest data to suggest that it’s more Biden than Trump.

    According to the Times-Siena polls, voters who didn’t cast ballots in 2016 but plan to (or already have) this time favor Biden by seven points in Arizona, 12 points in Pennsylvania, 17 points in Florida and 19 points in Wisconsin. And, to be clear, these are sizable chunks of voters: about 1 in every 5 voters in the first three states and 11 percent of all voters in Wisconsin.

    And lest Democrats worry that these voters might not actually turn out, given they didn’t do so in 2016: Two-thirds of them say they have already voted in Arizona and Florida, while 56 percent say the same in Wisconsin. (The number is lower — 36 percent — in Pennsylvania.) These are not just votes that Democrats hope to add; in most cases, these are votes they already have.

    The polls come on top of data collected by TargetSmart that has already shown that voters who haven’t previously cast ballots but did so early this time tilt toward Biden by similar margins. If Biden’s edge in new voters holds, he wins.

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  • RE: Halloweengrusel in Iowa

    saladin, 01.11.2020 23:55, Reply to #278

    iowa ist hauptsächlich wegen dem senatsitz von interesse

  • Ohio bekommt Besuch

    Wanli, 02.11.2020 01:31, Reply to #279

    Eigentlich wollten Herr und Frau Biden sowie Madame Harris den morgigen Tag komplett in Pennsylvania verbringen, aber Joe zieht es jetzt auch nach Ohio. Hier steht kein Senatssitz zur Wahl und auch sonst springt kein Grund für den Besuch ins Auge außer offenbar der Überzeugung der Bidenleute, hier eine Chance zu haben.

    https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1322956862254448640

    Laut 538 trotz des großen Vorsprungs Trumps vor vier Jahren tatsächlich ein Staat, der auf der Kippe steht:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

    Dennoch auf den ersten Blick ein bisschen überraschend, diese Entscheidung, denn die übrigen Battlegrounds in der Region sind eigentlich deutlich freundicheres Terrain und würden, wenn Joe sie denn alle gewänne, auch genügend EVs für einen Sieg bedeuten.

    Ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass man weiß, dass die Wahllokale in Ohio recht früh schließen und man wohl noch am Wahlabend ein Ergebnis haben wird. Und das könnte ganz gut sein für den inneren Frieden des Landes, denn Presseberichten zufolge plant der Donald, sich in der Wahlnacht zum Sieger auszurufen, auch wenn Staaten wie Pennsylvania noch gar kein Ergebnis vorgelegt haben.

    President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e35-402f-9e a3-0ccfb47f613f.html

    Dem Orange Utan wird es - wenig überraschend - völlig latte sein, ob er mit einem solchen Move einen eigentlich selbstverständlichen demokratischen Grundkonsens erschüttert und die Nation in eine Krise stürzt; heute gab er bekannt:

    I don’t think it’s fair that we have to wait for a long period of time after the election…We’re going in the night of — as soon as the election is over — we’re going in with our lawyers.

    https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/01/quote-of-the-day-2725/

    Der Gipfel der Heuchelei natürlich: Es sind die Republikaner, die durchgesetzt haben, dass in Pennsylvania und einigen anderen Staaten nicht jetzt schon Stimmzettel ausgezählt werden.

    Ein Sieg Joes in Ohio könnte einen solchen Schachzug vielleicht verhindern oder zumindest lächerlich wirken lassen. Das ist zumindest die beste Erklärung, die mir spontan für seinen Besuch einfällt.

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