Illinois Republican Primary 2012

• Illinois Republican Primary 2012

  Wanli, 11.03.2012 18:48

  #1
  

  

  Neue Umfragezahlen:

  Romney 35

  Santorum 31

  Gingrich 12

  Paul 7

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/il/illinois_republican_pr esidential_primary-1593.html

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• Illinois Republican Primary 2012: Lesenswert

  Wanli, 14.03.2012 16:34, Antwort auf #1

  #2
  

  Ganz interessante Überlegungen zu der Vorwahl, die vielleicht die dramatischste der noch im März abgehaltenen werden wird ich kopier sie mal zur Gänze hier rein:

  The Mississippi and Alabama contests -- like so many other Tuesday primaries before them -- were supposed to decide the fate of the GOP presidential nomination.
  
  Except Rick Santorum's double wins only tabled the decision for a future date. In this case, that may be March 20, when voters in Illinois will cast ballots.
  So what do we know about Illinois? There are 69 delegates at stake – fifteen of which are unbound and fifty-four of which are bound.
  
  Polling is scant. Last week, the Chicago Tribune released a survey showing Mitt Romney winning 35 percent of the vote, Santorum was second with 31 percent, and Newt Gingrich had 12 percent. Unfortunately, that’s the only meaningful poll of the state in the past five months.
  
  The Tribune’s survey suggests an enormously fluid race with 46 percent of likely voters saying they could change their minds before next Tuesday’s contest.
  
  That’s a boon for Romney, who’s already begun advertising in the state and can flood the airwaves in the days leading up to the primary. But he’ll be doing it against a new surge of momentum for Santorum after Tuesday night’s wins, and at the minimum, Romney’s financial advantage and Santorum’s momentum should cancel each other out.

  After all, Romney outspent Santorum in the South, only to lose to the former senator.
  
  The usual demographic breakdown seems to apply in Illinois, as well. Santorum runs better among the “very conservative” (+14 percent), while Romney leads among moderates by 22 percent. Santorum also wins evangelicals, while Romney wins women and suburban voters.
  
  In short, you can expect an election very much like Michigan and Ohio’s -- both of which Romney won. The former Massachusetts governor will likely try to run up the score in wealthier Republican suburbs, and Santorum will likely work to turn out conservative rural voters.
  
  But there are two big wild-cards that could threaten to upend some of the more predictable dynamics.
  
  First, Illinois’ primary system is open. In other words, any registered voter can show up and vote. In Michigan, prominent Democrats, including the liberal site Daily Kos, encouraged Democrats to vote for Santorum to embarrass Romney and extend the primary season. Romney eventually won, but Democrats did, in fact, make the race more competitive. Santorum won Democrats by 33 percent and that made up 9 percent of the entire voting electorate.
  
  In Ohio, Santorum once again routed Romney with Democrats, but Democrats only made up 5 percent of the electorate – barely one half of Michigan’s. In other words, “Operation Hilarity” -- as Dems dubbed it -- faded. If Democrats had shown up in Ohio at Michigan-like rates, Santorum would have won Ohio and shifted the entire race.
  
  A big question is how many Democrats will show up in Illinois? In Michigan, there were two weeks of dedicated coverage before the primary vote, which gave Democrats plenty of time to organize and develop a mischief-making campaign. But Illinois’ primary is just a week away and, thus, a “Hilarity” movement might not blossom in time to help Santorum.
  
  The second complicating factor is Newt Gingrich’s status in the race. Tuesday’s results furthered his position as a spoiler who can peel enough votes from Santorum to threaten the former Pennsylvania senator’s hopes, but not enough to win for himself. To be sure, Gingrich ran a strong second in Alabama and Mississippi, but the states were must-win for him, and he’s, thus far, performed miserably in the Midwest where Illinois lies.
  
  Gingrich picked up 15 percent of the vote in Ohio (where he campaigned) and 7 percent in Michigan (where he didn’t campaign).
  
  If he stays in the race as he promised Tuesday night, Gingrich would continue to undercut Santorum, particularly with conservative voters. He could also delay Romney from reaching the 1,144 delegates needed to cinch the nomination.
  
  For example, according to a CNN exit poll, in Illinois’ 2008 primary, 27 percent of voters called themselves “very conservative.” Santorum has been destroying both Romney and Gingrich with that group in the Midwest, but Gingrich still garnered 15 percent of the “very conservative” in Ohio. A similar showing with that group in Illinois would soften Santorum’s numbers with the voters he needs to win.
  
  Yet it seems as though Santorum has no choice but to endure Gingrich’s presence, as his spokesman Hogan Gidley told CNN Tuesday night. Gingrich “has every right” to continue running, but Gidley claimed that “if he weren’t in the race at this point, not only would we be beating Mitt Romney in these other states, we’d be beating him badly.”
  
  There’s a chance, though, that with each new Santorum win and Gingrich loss, the race will morph into the one-on-one Santorum wants -- him and Romney. Indeed, the question is whether Gingrich loses supporters who now see the race as distinctly a Santorum vs. Romney affair.
  
  That provokes an interesting question for Santorum. Should he train his fire on Gingrich to try to peel off the former's speakers voters, or should he focus on Romney and try to keep down the former Massachusetts governor's margins in the suburbs?
  
  Another dilemma for Santorum: In Michigan, he took major heat from Republicans for actively courting Democrats through robocalls. To an extent, you could say it might have worked by helping boost the Democratic share of the vote to nearly 10 percent. But it also provoked considerable backlash in the GOP grassroots. Should Santorum woo working class Democrats and mischief-minded foes of Romney, and if he does, how should he do it?
  
  All these questions will have to be answered enormously quickly. Illinois – and its enormous potential for Santorum -- is only a week away.

  http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/christian-heinze/215929-gop-contenders-turn- to-illinois

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• Illinois Republican Primary 2012: Zahlen, Prognose

  Wanli, 16.03.2012 18:55, Antwort auf #2

  #3
  

  Neue Umfragezahlen aus Illinois (We ask America):

  1) Mitt Romney 37
  
  2) Rick Santorum 31
  
  3) Newt Gingrich 14
  
  4) Ron Paul 8

  http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/03/romney-leads-in-illinois-poll.html

  Ein ausführlicher Artikel untersucht die Demographie des Staates:

  

  Man nimmt basierend auf Wahlergebnissen anderswo an, dass Romney die blauen und Santorum die roten Counties gewinnen wird. Prognose:

  	Romney %	Santorum %
  Cook County	52	27
  Wealthy Suburbs	48	30
  White Collar Suburbs	44	34
  Swing Cities	39	39
  Midwestern Plains	31	42
  Borderlands	29	45
  Southern	22	47
  	Romney 41.1%	Santorum 35.5%

  Das gelte allerdings nur, wenn man Gingrichs Stimmenanteil auf etwa 14,5% schätze - soviel habe der Mann in demographisch vergleichbaren Gebieten anderer Vorwahlstaaten geholt. Ob er das nach den Ergebnissen vom Wochenende wieder schafft? Nimmt Gingrichs Stimmenanteil ab, rückt Santorum (laut Modell) näher an Romney heran:

  Gingrich % Of Vote	Romney	Santorum	Margin
  12%	41.7	36.7	5
  10%	42.2	37.9	4.3
  8%	42.8	39	3.8
  6%	43.3	40.2	3.1
  4%	43.8	41.3	2.5
  2%	44.4	42.4	2
  0%	44.9	43.6	1.3

  http://electionate.com/2012/03/14/romney-favored-in-three-way-illinois-race/

  Mal sehen, ob es so kommt - ich persönlich habe den Illinois-Markt eh vergeigt, von daher bin ich da ganz entspannt.

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• RE: Illinois Republican Primary 2012: Zahlen, Prognose

  Wanli, 16.03.2012 21:57, Antwort auf #3

  #4
  

  Rick Santorum hielt in Missouri jetzt eine sehr kämpferische Rede und konnte sich dabei auch einen kleinen Seitenhieb auf Romneys geografische Stärken nicht verkneifen:

  “If you look at where my Republican opponent has won, it’s always in and around the cities. It almost looks like a Republican versus a Democrat,” Santorum said, referring to some states that he did not explicitly name. “He’s winning the areas the Democrats win and I win the areas Republicans win.” Santorum paused for a moment. “Does that tell you something maybe?”

  http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/293713/santorum-sharpens-attacks-romney-kat rina-trinko

  Schaut man sich die Illinoiskarte oben an, wird deutlich, was er meint: Romney wird wohl in und um Chicago abräumen, eine der solidesten Hochburgen der Demokraten in den ganzen Staaten, fast der ganze Rest des Staates dürfte an Santorum gehen. Und es ist kurioserweise fast überall so: Romney gewinnt dort, wo im Herbst voraussichtlich Obama die Nase vorn haben wird.

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• RE: Illinois Republican Primary 2012: election night exit poll

  saladin, 21.03.2012 01:07, Antwort auf #4

  #5
  

  5:02 PM PT</a>: Backing out the first batch of exit polls, we get Romney 45, Santorum 35, Gingrich 12, and Paul 8

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• RE: Illinois Republican Primary 2012: election night exit poll

  Wanli, 21.03.2012 20:03, Antwort auf #5

  #6
  

  Fast alles ausgezählt, Zwischenergebnis hier:

  http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/IL

  Romney ein bissel stärker als in den Exits, Gingrich schwächer und nur auf dem vierten Platz.

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• Illinois Republican Primary 2012: Fehler bei der Auszahlung

  Wanli, 22.03.2012 11:04, Antwort auf #6

  #7
  

  Ich find das Abschlussranking in Illinois ja sehr erfreulich, leider ist beim Auszahlen ein Fehler passiert: Ich hab für Santorum 46 Ex. gekriegt - das ist aber Romneys Ergebnis; die beiden wurden wohl vertauscht. Hier das offizielle Ergebnis:

  Romney 46,7

  Santorum 35

  Paul 9,3

  Gingrich 8

  Perry 0,6

  Roemer 0,4

  http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/IL

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• RE: Illinois Republican Primary 2012: Fehler bei der Auszahlung

  chessy, 22.03.2012 18:24, Antwort auf #7

  #8
  

  Ich find das Abschlussranking in Illinois ja sehr erfreulich, leider ist beim Auszahlen ein Fehler passiert: Ich hab für Santorum 46 Ex. gekriegt - das ist aber Romneys Ergebnis; die beiden wurden wohl vertauscht.

  Ok, ist ja hübsch, den eigenen Namen ganz oben im Ranking zu sehen, aber irgendwie auch unbefriedigend, wenn es nicht stimmt. Also Wafi-Team: Bitte korrigieren ...

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen

  Dieser Beitrag hat 1 Antwort

• RE: Illinois Republican Primary 2012: Fehler bei der Auszahlung

  gruener (Luddit), 22.03.2012 18:30, Antwort auf #8

  #9
  

  die technik wurde bereits gestern nacht von mir informiert.

  • Antworten

  Prognose verknüpfen