Wahlfieber schlägt Nate Silver's 538

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  • Wahlfieber schlägt Nate Silver's 538

    gruener (Luddit), 04.02.2016 19:46
    #1

    Ist das eigentlich wem von euch aufgefallen?

    (Fast) alle sahen Trump vorne, allein Wahlfieber nicht.

    Silvers Prognose für Iowa: "Trump has a 54 percent chance to win, according to our polls-only model, compared with Cruz’s 33 percent. But you’ll notice that the model gives Rubio an outside chance too, 11 percent. ... Our polls-plus [fivethirtyeight.com] forecast also has Trump favored, but only narrowly. Its algorithm gives an extra percentage point or two to Cruz and Rubio because their Iowa polls exceed their standing in national polls [fivethirtyeight.com] — historically a favorable indicator — and the opposite is true for Trump." - in Zahlen 46 - 39 - 14

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/

    Die Prognose von Wahlfieber hingegen lautete:

    Cruz: 28,31 - Trump: 28,12 - Rubio: 16,00

    ****

    Weiter so!

    Link prediction
    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • RE: Wahlfieber schlägt Nate Silver's 538

    Jack Bauer, 05.02.2016 00:52, Reply to #1
    #2

    Gib es doch zu, du hast mit der 538-Prognose vergnügt den virtuellen Wahlfieber-Boden aufgewischt. 'smile'

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    There is 1 a reply to this post.

  • RE: Wahlfieber schlägt Nate Silver's 538

    gruener (Luddit), 07.02.2016 04:32, Reply to #2
    #3

    :-)

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